California Voters Could Decide Whether Republicans Keep the House

Though seen by many as a deep blue state sporting a Democrat trifecta—with the governor’s office and both legislative chambers controlled by the party with supermajority margins—California has millions of Republicans and independent voters who could determine the balance of power in Congress in November.
Republicans control the House with a slim eight seat majority, thanks, in part, to some California seats flipping from blue to red in 2022.
Golden State voters will consider 52 races—with seats currently split between 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans—for the House of Representatives, including some of the nation’s most competitive districts.
Many of the tightest races are in districts in the Central Valley, Orange County, and east of Los Angeles in the Inland Empire.
The predominantly Hispanic, agricultural Central Valley district encompasses Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties.
Voter registration is split with nearly 41 percent Democrats, about 30 percent Republicans, and almost 22 percent independent.
In the March primary, Duarte beat Gray by almost 10 percent.
A fourth-generation farmer, longtime plant nursery owner, and first-time representative, Duarte told The Epoch Times that producers, businesses, and lower-income families are “greatly impacted by inflation and the Biden administration’s anti-energy and anti-resource policies.”
He said he hears from constituents that affordability is of paramount importance.
“I’m in touch with the issues in the district and I have a lot of credibility with many people,” Duarte said. “The message is clear: Get water on the farms, drill American oil, and get the cost of living under control.”
The congressman is supported by the National Federation of Independent Business, Central Valley Leadership Round Table, and the Peace Officers Research Association of California, among others.
Gray was born and raised in Merced and worked in his family-owned dairy and feed store. He served as a state Assemblyman representing the area for 10 years beginning in 2012.
Gray’s supporters say his service shows his desire to help the region thrive.
“Adam has an unmatched record of fighting and delivering for the valley,” his campaign said. “Adam has always put the needs of the community above partisan politics and that’s what he will continue to do if elected to Congress.”
The prior race was decided by fewer than 4,000 votes.
Though more Democrats are registered in the district than Republicans—41 percent to 27 percent, with 23 percent reporting no party preference—Valadao has held the seat off-and-on since 2012, losing once in 2018 before recapturing the position in 2020.
He was born and raised in the area with a background in dairy and agriculture. The congressman served two years in the state Assembly before his first election to the House of Representatives.
A lifelong Central Valley resident, Salas labored in agricultural fields with his father before earning a degree from the University of California, Los Angeles, and serving five terms in the Assembly.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) won the election in 2022 and is running against Democrat George Whitesides, former chief of staff of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The district is known a home to companies in the aerospace industry and national defense, with voter registration about 41 percent Democratic, 30 percent Republican, and almost 22 percent independent.
Garcia is a military veteran and retired fighter pilot who has held the seat since a special election was called in 2020 to replace the Democrat former Rep. Katie Hill—who resigned in 2019 after allegations of sexual misconduct surfaced.
The congressman said his priorities include addressing regulatory red-tape, high taxes, and inflation.
Whitesides says his career in aerospace, including a stint as CEO of Virgin Galactic, gives him knowledge of the industry that would help him represent the region.
Steel immigrated to the United States from South Korea with her mother and two sisters. In 2006, she was elected to the state’s Board of Equalization and eight years later to the Orange County Board of Supervisors before winning a seat in Congress in 2020.
Democrats have a slim edge over Republicans in registered voters, about 37 percent to 33 percent, with 24 percent of the electorate independent.
Steel is backed by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the National Federation of Independent Business, and former U.S. House Speaker Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
Her challenger is a veteran, business owner, and consumer rights attorney whose parents fled a communist regime in Vietnam.
The district’s electorate is evenly split between parties at 35 percent each, with about 24 percent independent.
A first-generation Korean American, Min worked as an enforcement attorney for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and taught business law at the University of California, Irvine, before being elected to the state Senate in 2020.
He said protecting humanity from the dangers of communism is one reason he is seeking higher office.
He stressed opposition to “feckless and shameful kowtowing to the Chinese Communist Party.”
“This is not a partisan issue but a matter of core American values,” Min said. “We should defend democracy and freedom around the world, just as we did in World War II and Korea.”
Porter, the Service Employees International Union, and the Police Officers Research Association of California, among others, support Min.
Baugh was raised involved in family businesses and has lived in Orange County for more than 25 years.
In the 1990s, Baugh served in the state Assembly and became Republican leader before being termed out. In 2022, he ran for the District 47 congressional seat but lost to Porter, who was then the incumbent.
Kiley was a state Assemblyman for six years beginning in 2016 before he was elected to Congress.
The congressman said his bipartisan message resonates with constituents.
Morse was appointed to the U.S. Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission last year and served as a deputy secretary for the state’s Natural Resources Agency.
She said she recognizes the challenges the district is facing “are not partisan.”
The district flipped from Republican with Harder’s victory in 2019.
Lincoln highlighted his record as a veteran and public servant.
He criticized policies emanating from the nation’s capital that he believes are “making life harder” for the Central Valley by “raising the cost of groceries, gas, and housing.”
Assemblyman Evan Low and San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo are vying to represent the district—which encompasses Silicon Valley south of San Francisco.
His opponent is prioritizing inflation, public safety, and housing, according to his campaign.
Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) was first elected to Congress in 2021 and is facing Democrat Joe Kerr—a retired Orange County firefighter.
The incumbent said her record is one of bipartisan leadership that prioritizes working families.
Kerr said Washington is plagued by “gridlock, corruption, divisive rhetoric, the lack of civility, and grandstanding,” and vowed to address the issues.
Calvert has represented the area in Congress since 1993.
He acknowledged the gravity of his and other races—with the control of Congress up for grabs Nov. 5.
In campaign videos, he says bridging partisan divides would be a priority of his congressional term if elected.
Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.)–who has held the office since 2019—is facing a challenge from Republican Matt Gunderson.
Levin’s campaign points to nearly $1 billion in federal funding secured for the district and dozens of bipartisan bills authored by the congressman as evidence that his work is benefiting the community.
He said driving corruption out of government is a top priority.
Gunderson’s campaign said he plans to reduce taxes, regulations, and “anti-business” policies to help stimulate the economy.
“Matt Gunderson knows he can no longer sit back and watch the American Dream evaporate for younger generations while government takes more control away from parents and our local communities,” his campaign said on its website. “He’s ready to use his business experience to stand up to the failed policies of Washington, D.C. that are crushing local families.”
The candidate said a change of pace is needed.
Newsom appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) to the seat in September 2023 after Feinstein died, and Butler opted out of running for the new term.
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican Steve Garvey—known for his major league baseball career with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres—are vying for the position.